H-1B Selection Odds by Wage Level, FY2027

By Permitely Editorial · Last updated October 10, 2026 · How we check this page

From FY2027 the H-1B draw is still random, but each beneficiary is entered once at wage Level I and up to four times at Level IV, so no single headline selection rate applies to any individual applicant. The last selection rate USCIS has actually published is for FY2026: 120,141 selected registrations out of 343,981 eligible, or 34.9%.

Published 18 August 2026 · Data basis: FY2027 cap registration period, 4–19 March 2026 · Free to cite with attribution

1. Summary figures

2. Selection probability by wage level

How to read it. These are DHS’s own projections in the final rule’s economic analysis (Table 13, 90 FR 60947–48), not USCIS results. Because each entry is a ticket in the same draw, the probabilities scale with the entries: Level IV is four times Level I (61.16% ÷ 15.29%). DHS modelled the regular cap and the master’s exemption as one pooled draw and assumed employers keep their current wages, so the figures do not show the master’s second draw: a US advanced-degree holder should expect somewhat more than the figure for their level, and everyone else somewhat less. A beneficiary registered by several employers is entered at the lowest wage level among those registrations.

2-1. Registration volume by segment

We previously published a Level I share and an advanced-degree share of selections here. Neither figure appears in the USCIS pages cited in section 5, so on 22 September 2026 we removed the table rather than carry unsourced counts. What the weighting does establish is structural: Level I gets one entry and no master’s second draw helps a registrant without a US advanced degree, so the segment most exposed under FY2027 is the Level I registrant without a US master's degree.

3. Year-over-year change

4. Methodology and limits

How the figures were produced

• FY2026 selection rate 34.9% = 120,141 selected registrations ÷ 343,981 eligible registrations, both read from the FY2021–26 table on the USCIS H-1B Electronic Registration Process page. Plain arithmetic.
• Per-level probabilities are DHS’s estimates in Table 13 of the final rule (90 FR 60947–48), from the registration data DHS used for its economic analysis, with 29.59% as the equal-chance rate on the same data. We changed nothing in them.
• Master’s second draw is described, not quantified. USCIS selects the 65,000 regular cap from all beneficiaries first and then the 20,000 exemption from the remaining US advanced-degree holders; the final rule keeps that order (90 FR 60947), but DHS published no per-level figures for the two stages. This report previously showed a modelled master’s uplift and a selection order running from Level IV down; both were removed on 10 October 2026 after a reading of the final rule.

Limits — please carry these with any citation

1. USCIS has not published selection rates by wage level. The Section 2 probabilities are DHS projections made before the draw, not official results.
2. Actual outcomes depend on the OES wage level assigned to the specific occupation and area. The same job title can fall in different levels by location.
3. Registration counts are eligible registrations, after duplicate and ineligibility screening.
4. FY2027 is the first year of wage-weighted selection. There is no time series to test year-to-year stability.
5. Litigation or rulemaking can change the method. Re-check before the FY2028 registration window.
6. This report is not legal advice.

5. Citable sources

Sources and official references: USCIS — H-1B Cap Season; USCIS — H-1B Electronic Registration Process; Federal Register — USCIS rulemaking; Federal Register — H-1B weighted selection; 8 U.S.C. §1184 (annual cap authority); Federal Register — Weighted Selection Process final rule, 90 FR 60864 (December 29, 2025), Table 13 and the regulatory text. Underlying tool: Permitely H-1B Lottery Odds Calculator. A wage-level source could not be registered: the DOL wage-data endpoints returned an identical 1,889-character shell on separate URLs, so we do not cite them here. API check (2026-09-03, datacenter IP, no login): the two Federal Register links above are the site's public API (agency index and document search) and returned HTTP 200 with 1,028 and 45,599 characters, but neither carries the FY2027 registration figures. The USCIS Cap Season and Electronic Registration pages returned HTTP 403 direct and had no reachable archive snapshot on that date (4 and 3 consecutive weekly failures). On 22 September 2026 both USCIS pages were read through the Wayback Machine (29,396 and 23,625 characters). They carry the $215 FY2027 registration fee and the FY2021–26 registration and selection table — the source of the 343,981 and 120,141 figures used above — but no FY2027 registration statistics. The FY2027 figures this report previously carried (211,600 eligible registrations, −38.5% year over year, a 71.5% advanced-degree share of selections and a 17.7% Level I share of registrations) were therefore removed that day and the tables now print “Confirm with the official source (not verified)” in their place.

6. Quotable lines

• "The last H-1B selection rate USCIS published is FY2026: 120,141 selected out of 343,981 eligible registrations, or 34.9%."
• "DHS projects a 61.16% selection chance at wage Level IV and 15.29% at Level I under the FY2027 weighted draw, against 29.59% for everyone under the old equal-chance draw."
• "A US master’s degree still adds a second draw for the 20,000 exemption, but DHS’s per-level figures do not separate it."
• "A falling registration count under the $215 fee and anti-fraud screening means duplicates cleared out, not demand collapsing."